Today I'd like to welcome the lovely Geoff Nelder, author of ARIA: Left Luggage to the blog. Geoff is here talking about coincidences as part of his blog tour for the release of his new book! Yay! Many congrats, Geoff!
Coincidences Examined
The old
adage that truth is stranger than fiction can be difficult for authors who seek
to enthral readers by teetering them on the edge with a barely credible plot. Consider
these true accounts.
In the
1920s three Englishmen travelled independently by train through Peru. When they
entered the carriage, the three strangers greeted each other. They were the
only occupants of the railroad car. One man's last name was Bingham, and the
second man's last name was Powell. The third man’s eyebrows elevated in shock
then he announced that his last name was Bingham-Powell. They were unrelated. It
is complicated to estimate the odds of those three meeting although it isn’t as
astronomical as you might think.
Powell is
the 85th most common name with 77,000 people sharing it in Great Britain. Bingham
is the 1588th most common name with only 6,400 folk sharing it. So,
the chances of the next person you see at random being a Powell given there are
60 million Brits is just less than one in 800. The chances of meeting a Bingham
is over one in 9000. The chances of meeting a Bingham-Powell in Great Britain
using today’s directory data is – gulp – over one in a million and yet I’ve met
one. Interestingly, this book is in the British Library: Sanitary
Progress in Peru and Bolivia, by H. J. BINGHAM-POWELL. Published in 1916,
which brings me to that train. Given three Englishmen being in Peru
in the 1920s, they are likely to be men of means who are probably professional
engineers, businessmen or academics. Roads being what they were then their most
likely transport mode would be rail. Trains didn’t run every day so the
probability increases that they’d be on the same train, with maybe one or two
first class carriages. The chances are better than you might have originally
thought but somewhat more than a million to one.
It's
Raining Babies
In 1930s Detroit, a young mother
earnestly thanked a man named Joseph Figlock. As he was walking down the
street, the mother's baby fell from a high window onto him. Both man and baby
were bruised but unharmed. Fortunate indeed, but a year later, the same baby
fell from the same window onto the hapless Joseph Figlock as he was again
passing beneath. Again, they both survived the event. If you wrote that into a
story it would sound incredulous and contrived because the odds must be
millions to one against.
Let’s
consider the circumstances. Figlock was on his way to work so it was likely he
passed under that window at the same time each working day. In other words the coincidence
isn’t related to Figlock but to the infant. The mother probably followed a
daily routine – e.g. rising, ablutions, getting breakfast ready, changing, and
feeding the infant. A year on, the baby would not be self sufficient. At some
point in that routine the infant was placed on a table near the window. Most
days the window was shut but on a hot summer’s day maybe pa opened it before
going out to work. So we’ve narrowed it down to the hotter days in Detroit. Conjecture, yes,
but you see how the odds are reduced making this amazing coincidence more a
predictable event. Even so, feel sorry for Figlock: infants put on a lot of
mass in 12 months. I bet he changed his route the following year!
When
discussing coincidences the Presidential coincidences relating to dates often
crop up. These of Lincoln and Kennedy are worth repeating:
Abraham
Lincoln was elected to Congress in 1846.
John F.
Kennedy was elected to Congress in 1946.
Abraham
Lincoln was elected President in 1860.
John F.
Kennedy was elected President in 1960.
Both were
particularly concerned with civil rights.
While
living in the White House, both wives lost their children.
Both
Presidents were shot on a Friday.
Both
Presidents were shot in the head.
Lincoln’s
secretary was named Kennedy.
Kennedy’s Secretary
was named Lincoln.
Both were
assassinated by Southerners.
Both were
succeeded by Southerners named Johnson.
Andrew
Johnson, who succeeded Lincoln,
was born in 1808.
Lyndon
Johnson, who succeeded Kennedy, was born in 1908.
John Wilkes
Booth, who assassinated Lincoln,
was born in 1839.
Lee Harvey
Oswald, who (we presume) assassinated Kennedy, was born in 1939.
Both
assassins were known by their three names.
Both names
are composed of fifteen letters.
Lincoln was shot
at the theatre named ‘Ford.’
Kennedy was
shot in a car called ‘Lincoln’
made by ‘Ford.’
Lincoln was shot
in a theatre and his assassin ran and hid in a warehouse.
Kennedy was
shot from a warehouse and his assassin ran and hid in a theatre.
More
coincidences but related to ARIA: Left
Luggage
ARIA is based on
something found on the International Space Station (ISS).
When I emailed a
NASA employee about the nature of the struts, Leroy Chaio answered while in
orbit on the ISS.
The novel was
originally called Left Luggage and in the critique group was known just as LL.
The publisher who grabbed it is called LL-Publications.
It worried me
that another writer would hear of or invent the same unique premise of
infectious amnesia. If they had, they’ve forgotten about it.
In ARIA an alien
virus is removing the memories of humans so that eventually they cannot
function. Why?
ARIA: Left Luggage
A moment of lunacy hit me cycling up a steep Welsh hill five
years ago. An original idea: infectious amnesia. Not mass amnesia, but one you
catch from being near someone else who also has it. Infectious amnesia doesn’t
exist. Thank goodness, but imagine the ramifications if it did. You are on a
bus when a man gets on with a new virus, one that loses memory backwards at the
rate of a year per week. By the time the bus stops, all the passengers,
including you, have ARIA (Alien Retrograde Infectious Amnesia). The driver has
it too, and all her passengers until the end of her shift. You go shopping on
the way home. Your spouse works in the power plant, your kids go to school. How
long before industry stops, society breaks down, and your kids forget how to
read, write and talk?
That’s why Mike Resnick, Robert J Sawyer, Jon C Grimwood,
Brad Lineweaver and Charles Stross says ARIA
is a fascinating idea, and makes us think of what is the most important things
we need to remember in our lives.
